Once in a Lifetime

Take any kid from junior high and you'll find someone who is absolutely, positively ready for a once in a lifetime event. He will know exactly what to do when thrust on the stage of a rock concert, given the ball in the final seconds, or presented with love at first sight.

Fast forward to professional life. Somewhere growing up, that awareness of the unexpected is lost. Take healthcare, for example. Each symptom is a piece of the puzzle that contributes to the diagnosis. Taking all the signs together, one can make a pretty strong case: let's say with 90% certainty. Good enough, they say: to claim absolute certainty is both foolish and impossible. And when we gain these satisfactory leads, we must follow them. There's not a doctor in the world who will say, "Oh look, it's the same case as the last nine that I saw. But this being the tenth, I should pick the 10% option." Not only would that sort of reasoning be mathematically unsound, it would never hold up in court.

But here's the weird part. Eventually, that rare case will come. Without a doubt. And we will choose the wrong course of action. 100% of the time. It's as if we are slaves to our experience. The irony is that although we associate experience with better judgment, it also cements the inevitable wrong choice.

This vulnerability frustrates me because there seems to be no easy remedy. There's no way to protect against it without costing inordinate amounts of time, effort, and money. Maybe this is the modern day Sword of Damocles, a peril ever present to remind us of our limitations.

I hope this .0001% event happens to me soon. Get it out of the way, and with such low chances, it's unlikely to happen twice in a lifetime....right?

Hmmmmmm....



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